The highly anticipated Champions League last-16 second-leg clash between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid is set to take place at the Metropolitano Stadium on Wednesday. With Los Blancos holding a narrow 2-1 advantage from the first leg, Atlético Madrid will rely on their formidable home record to overturn the deficit.
Let’s take a closer look at the key stats, head-to-head record, and predictions for this thrilling encounter.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Key Insights
- Atlético Madrid have a 38.5% chance of winning, according to the latest predictions, while Real Madrid’s probability stands at 35.2%.
- Atlético have not lost a home Champions League knockout game since 1997, going unbeaten in 18 matches.
- Carlo Ancelotti will manage his 75th Champions League match for Real Madrid in this fixture.
- Real Madrid won the first leg 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu, but Atlético’s home advantage makes this tie far from over.
Atlético’s Home Advantage Could Be Key
Atlético Madrid have built a strong reputation for being nearly unbeatable at home in Champions League knockout rounds. Their last defeat in a home UCL knockout fixture dates back to March 1997, when they lost 3-2 to Ajax. Since then, they have won 11 and drawn 7 of their last 18 home matches in this stage of the competition.
Additionally, Atlético have been dominant against their city rivals at home in recent years. They have lost just once in their last seven home meetings against Real Madrid across all competitions, with three wins and three draws.
If Diego Simeone’s men can maintain their defensive solidity and capitalize on home support, they stand a strong chance of turning the tie around.
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Real Madrid’s Away Struggles in the Derby
While Real Madrid have historically been dominant against Atlético, their recent away form in this rivalry has been far from convincing. From January 2008 to February 2014, Madrid managed eight consecutive away wins against Atlético. However, since then, they have won just three of their last 17 away games in this fixture, with seven losses and seven draws.
Ancelotti’s team will need to overcome their struggles at the Metropolitano if they want to seal their place in the quarter-finals without unnecessary drama.
What to Expect from the Match
Given the tight first-leg scoreline, both teams will likely approach the game cautiously in the early stages. However, as the match progresses, Atlético will be forced to push forward in search of an equalizer.
Key battles to watch:
- Atlético’s defense vs. Vinícius Jr. – The Brazilian winger’s pace and dribbling could be crucial.
- Griezmann vs. Madrid’s defense – The French forward’s creativity and finishing will be Atlético’s biggest weapon.
- Midfield control – A battle between Kroos, Modrić, and Bellingham against Koke and De Paul will be pivotal.
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid: Prediction
Despite trailing from the first leg, Atlético’s home strength gives them a slight edge in the return fixture. According to 10,000 match simulations, Atlético have a 38.9% chance of winning, while Real Madrid’s probability sits at 35.2%. A draw (26.3%) could also be on the cards, which would be enough for Madrid to advance.
In terms of qualification chances, Real Madrid remain heavy favorites to reach the quarter-finals (72.5%), while Atlético’s chances of progressing stand at 27.5%.
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Can Atlético Madrid Stage a Comeback?
Atlético Madrid will need a disciplined defensive performance and clinical finishing to overturn the deficit. While Real Madrid’s experience in high-pressure situations makes them a dangerous opponent, Atlético’s impressive home form and determined mentality make this a 50-50 contest.
With both teams hungry for victory, expect a high-intensity battle that could go down to the wire. Will Atlético Madrid complete the comeback, or will Real Madrid’s European dominance continue? We’ll find out soon.
