It’s nonetheless early days within the 2026-27 Premier League season and the desk continues to be taking form. However what do the underlying statistics inform us? Which groups are enjoying higher than their outcomes would possibly counsel, and which groups are overperforming?
That’s the place good previous ‘anticipated objectives’, rattler of Correct Soccer Males throughout the nation, helps us out. We’ve delved into the info to see which groups are doing finest and worst by way of the standard of probabilities they’ve created and confronted.
After their five-goal exhibiting in opposition to Coventry Metropolis on the weekend, Brighton & Hove Albion are the division’s top-scoring staff – and that’s borne out by their underlying numbers, having created virtually 2.0xG greater than every other facet within the division.
The Seagulls are overperforming their numbers, with solely Newcastle United scoring extra compared to their xG output, however creating bagloads of probabilities and being medical with them is a reasonably lethal mixture.
Elsewhere, under-pressure Michael Carrick may be heartened to be taught that Manchester United rank second within the Premier League for xG, whereas Manchester Metropolis, Arsenal, Liverpool and Chelsea are all unsurprisingly within the high half. Brentford, Leeds and newly-promoted Ipswich City are doing alright on that entrance too.
On the different finish, you received’t be in any respect shocked to be taught that Arsenal have comfortably the very best xG in opposition to numbers within the Premier League. The reigning champions have earned their fame as the very best defensive facet within the nation, which is underlined by conceding simply 2.7xG in opposition to them this season – virtually a 3rd of which is accounted for by the penalty that David Raya saved of their win over Sunderland.
Manchester Metropolis aren’t far behind, and their wholesome numbers on each fronts counsel that Enzo Maresca’s facet might be the closest challengers to the Gunners this season. The 2 sides are on the high for each xG distinction and anticipated factors.
Nottingham Forest, Manchester United, Bournemouth, Liverpool and Leeds are additionally registering respectable output on the subject of their underlying anticipated objectives in opposition to numbers.
Having a look on the image as a complete, Carrick’s Manchester United are simply the most important xG underperformers at this fledgling stage of the marketing campaign. They rank fourth for anticipated aim distinction and third for anticipated factors.
In case you put your religion on this knowledge and belief that underlying numbers will ultimately be mirrored in outcomes, the Pink Devils shall be simply wonderful. However, in the event that they proceed to underperform on each fronts for a sustained time frame, which may counsel a extra continual subject with their ending and goalkeeper.
On the inverse, winless and goalless Tottenham and Coventry Metropolis would possibly count on to be doing marginally higher than their outcomes counsel – though the image nonetheless isn’t nice.
The underlying numbers are in all probability most regarding for Aston Villa and Newcastle United, backside for xG distinction and anticipated factors respectively.
Listed here are all of the related 2026-27 Premier League tables for xG thus far, with the info taken from FotMob.
xG (Anticipated Objectives)
1. Brighton & Hove Albion — 10.2 (+2.8)
2. Manchester United — 8.3 (-1.3)
3. Manchester Metropolis — 7.7 (+0.3)
4. Brentford — 7.3 (-0.3)
5. Arsenal — 6.8 (+1.2)
6. Liverpool — 6.7 (-0.7)
7. Leeds United — 6.5 (+0.5)
8. Chelsea — 6.5 (+3.5)
9. Ipswich City — 6.3 (+0.7)
10. Nottingham Forest — 6.2 (-2.2)
11. Sunderland — 6.2 (-3.2)
12. Fulham — 6.1 (-2.1)
13. AFC Bournemouth — 5.9 (+0.1)
14. Crystal Palace — 5.2 (+0.8)
15. Everton — 5.1 (-0.1)
16. Coventry Metropolis — 4.2 (-4.2)
17. Newcastle United — 3.9 (+3.1)
18. Hull Metropolis — 3.7 (+1.3)
19. Tottenham Hotspur — 3.4 (-3.4)
20. Aston Villa — 3.4 (-2.4)
xGA (Anticipated Objectives In opposition to)
1. Arsenal — 2.7 (-1.7)
2. Manchester Metropolis — 3.7 (-1.7)
3. Nottingham Forest — 4.1 (-0.1)
4. Manchester United — 5.2 (+1.8)
5. Liverpool — 5.3 (-1.3)
6. AFC Bournemouth — 5.3 (+1.7)
7. Leeds United — 5.4 (-2.4)
8. Brentford — 5.5 (-1.5)
9. Everton — 5.5 (-2.5)
10. Sunderland — 5.8 (-0.8)
11. Hull Metropolis — 6.0 (-4.0)
12. Chelsea — 6.2 (+2.8)
13. Tottenham Hotspur — 6.6 (-1.6)
14. Ipswich City — 6.7 (+3.3)
15. Brighton & Hove Albion — 7.0 (-2.0)
16. Fulham — 7.5 (-0.5)
17. Coventry Metropolis — 7.5 (+2.5)
18. Newcastle United — 7.5 (+0.5)
19. Aston Villa — 7.7 (-0.7)
20. Crystal Palace — 8.1 (+2.9)
xG Distinction (xG – xGA)
1. Arsenal — 4.1
2. Manchester Metropolis — 4.0
3. Brighton & Hove Albion — 3.2
4. Manchester United — 3.1
5. Nottingham Forest — 2.1
6. Brentford — 1.8
7. Liverpool — 1.4
8. Leeds United — 1.1
9. AFC Bournemouth — 0.6
10. Sunderland — 0.4
11. Chelsea — 0.3
12. Ipswich City — -0.4
13. Everton — -0.4
14. Fulham — -1.4
15. Hull Metropolis — -2.3
16. Crystal Palace — -2.9
17. Tottenham Hotspur — -3.2
18. Coventry Metropolis — -3.3
19. Newcastle United — -3.6
20. Aston Villa — -4.3
xPTS (Anticipated Factors)
1. Arsenal — 9 (+3)
2. Manchester Metropolis — 8 (+4)
3. Manchester United — 7 (-3)
4. Brighton & Hove Albion — 7 (=)
5. Nottingham Forest — 7 (-2)
6. Liverpool — 6 (=)
7. AFC Bournemouth — 6 (-3)
8. Leeds United — 6 (+2)
9. Ipswich City — 6 (=)
10. Brentford — 6 (=)
11. Sunderland — 6 (-2)
12. Chelsea — 6 (+1)
13. Everton — 5 (+1)
14. Fulham — 4 (-3)
15. Tottenham Hotspur — 4 (-2)
16. Hull Metropolis — 4 (+4)
17. Crystal Palace — 4 (-1)
18. Aston Villa — 4 (-3)
19. Coventry Metropolis — 3 (-3)
20. Newcastle United — 3 (+2)
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